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Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Ever wonder why we are all separated by six degrees from actor Kevin Bacon? Are you really more likely to die in a car crash on your way to the store to buy your lottery ticket than you are to win the jackpot? And what are the chances of winning at poker in your local casino? University of Toronto statistics professor Jeffrey S. Rosenthal’s Struck By Lightning brings forth practical, equation-based answers to such questions as, “What are the odds of that?”and “Was it really worth all this trouble?”

Rosenthal’s mathematical look at life’s seemingly random occurrences is both refreshing and detailed. He advocates using educated decisions and a more pragmatic approach to problem solving, and he does it with a punchy, quick-witted writing style. He covers the chances for everything from “cash cow” casinos (where games necessarily work out in favour of the house) to politics, disease, pharmaceutical research findings, and dating dilemmas. (Imagine being able to decide whether or not to ask someone out simply by calculating a utility function!)

Rosenthal introduces theories like Poisson clumping, the law of large numbers, and probability perspective in accessible, anecdotal, and interesting ways, debunking myths about societal trends that get fed to us via media hype. (He notes, for example, the surprising fact that murder rates in the U.S. are slowly on the decline over the last 30 years as compared with England’s rising homicide rate.) Rosenthal also addresses the effects of biases in statistical reporting, citing cases such as the infamous Dr. Olivieri scandal, that bring light to how skewed statistics can become when special interest groups (or strong emotions) get involved.

Finishing up in true academic fashion with an exam for readers, Rosenthal succeeds in bringing mathematical theory to the masses, making it funny, non-apologetically geeky, and highly relevant.

 

Reviewer: Heather Neale

Publisher: HarperCollins Canada

DETAILS

Price: $34.95

Page Count: 258 pp

Format: Cloth

ISBN: 0-00-200791-6

Released: Sept.

Issue Date: 2005-10

Categories: Science, Technology & Environment