The notoriously secretive folks in Sweden are rumoured to be releasing the name of the 2011 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient later this week. Although the selection process is veiled in mystery (no shortlist of contenders is announced in advance) that doesn’t stop the intrepid bookmakers at Ladbrokes in London, England, from taking bets on likely contenders each year.

These bets are blind, of course, since there are no criteria available for setting odds, but nevertheless, the bettors have decided that Syrian poet Adonis is the likeliest candidate, giving him 4 to 1 odds as of last Thursday, according to the Los Angeles Times. The LA Times‘s book blog, Jacket Copy, lays out the rationale for the choice:

The poet and essayist is 81, so he has the benefit of years; his name has previously been mentioned in association with the award, leaving the impression he may have been under consideration in the past; he is a key figure in modern Arabic poetry; he was once imprisoned for his political views; he continued his support of modern Arabic poetry after leaving Syria; and in Syria, his home nation, a democratic uprising continues in what may be one of the most radical transformations following this year’s Arab Spring. A combination of artistic excellence and social justice have often played well with the Nobel committee.

There are no Canadians in the top 17 spots (despite the fact that Margaret Atwood’s name perennially crops up in these discussions); other possibilities include Thomas Pynchon (at 12 to 1), Haruki Murakami (at 16 to 1), and John Banville, Joyce Carol Oates, and Philip Roth (longshots at 25 to 1).

At least one online venue is content to endorse a longshot: The Millions has published an open letter urging the Nobel committee to bestow this year’s award on Roth. Their rationale, in part:

The case for Roth’s candidacy for a Nobel Prize isn’t that he’s a nice guy; it is that he’s a genius, and in Roth’s case, his genius lies in his audacity. Audacity doesn’t play nice. It isn’t politically correct. The peculiar power of audacity lies in its willingness to break rules, trample taboos, shake us awake “ and, yes, sometimes, piss us off mightily. Audacity without intelligence begets mindless spectacle, but Philip Roth is the smartest living writer in America, and his work, good and bad, brilliant and puerile, is among the best this country has ever produced.

The Millions also notes that the Library of America has chosen this week to publish its omnibus volume of the author’s acclaimed American Trilogy, which consists of American Pastoral, I Married a Communist, and The Human Stain. The timing, we may assume, is purely coincidental.